Analysts estimate a drop in the Bitcoin network hashrate after the reduction in miners’ rewards in April
The upcoming Bitcoin mining reward cut could lead to the shutdown of eight different models of ASIC mining devices due to their sensitivity to market changes. According to Galaxy Digital estimates, if such a scenario is realized, the total amount of computing power of the Bitcoin network will be reduced from the current 573 EH by 20%, which will amount to 85–115 exahash (EH).
Analysts obtained similar data based on the cost of Bitcoin at $45 thousand, the reward for the mined block at 3125 BTC and transaction processing fees amounting to 15% of the miner’s income.
rbc.group
What is Bitcoin halving. The most important
The study showed that last year the M20S, M32, S17, A1066, A1246 and S9 models provided 19.7% of the Bitcoin network hashrate in the amount of 98 EH. Many of these devices are on the brink of profitability due to high energy costs and insufficient fee levels required to break even. Analysts predict that 25–35% of existing ASIC devices will be replaced by new models during 2024.
The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April, involves halving the reward of miners for a confirmed block of transactions in the Bitcoin network. The halving is generally considered bullish for the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, but miners with high transaction costs could face serious difficulties if the price of Bitcoin does not rise high enough to cover their costs.
Galaxy Digital estimates that due to the reduction in rewards, almost all devices will become uncompetitive, and miners will be faced with the need to use custom firmware or try to switch to cheaper electricity. Analysts predict that 25–35% of existing ASIC devices will be replaced by new models in 2024.
Over the course of this year, Galaxy analysts expect the introduction of next-generation T21, S21 and M60 series devices, as well as an additional 2-3 GW of capacity, which could lead to a 35-45% increase in the hashrate of the Bitcoin network.. According to analysts, by the end of 2024 the total amount of computing power of the Bitcoin network will be from 675 EH to 725 EH.