Bets on Bitcoin halving date and Marmot forecast

The Bitcoin halving, a historical event that is expected to reduce Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, will occur sometime in April 2024, but the exact date has not yet been determined, at least on Groundhog Day.

According to various Bitcoin halving countdown trackers, including NiceHash and, the fourth Bitcoin halving in history could occur between April 8 and April 22, 2024.

It is estimated that Bitcoin's fourth halving could occur in 66-79 days, depending on factors such as block height, hash rate and mining difficulty.

Countdown to Bitcoin halving in 2024. Source: NiceHash

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs once every 210,000 blocks, which is estimated to happen every four years. According to BlockExplorer, the upcoming Bitcoin halving will occur at block 840,000, leaving only 11,449 blocks remaining out of the current 828,551 blocks at the time of writing.

The problem with estimating the Bitcoin halving date using various countdown trackers is that it is very unlikely that you can accurately predict a specific date until it actually happens.

“I think it has something to do with how algorithms interpret data,” said Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan.

“Such a poetic intonation, written by Satoshi. The exact timing of the event remains a mystery until it happens,” he added.

A similar opinion was widespread in the Bitcoin community on the main crypto forum BitcoinTalk. Some observers have suggested that estimates are adjusted based on Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustments every two weeks, or technically every 2,016 blocks.

According to historical data, all three Bitcoin halvings took different periods of time. The first halving event occurred on November 28, 2012, or 1,425 days after Bitcoin launched on January 3, 2009.. The second halving event occurred 1319 days later, on July 9, 2016. The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, 1402 days after the second.

At the time of writing, a total of 1,362 days have passed since the last Bitcoin halving, which occurred on May 11, 2020.

Although it is still unlikely to predict the exact date of the Bitcoin halving, the community is generally betting on April 20, 2024, which is an international counterculture holiday and meme based on the celebration and consumption of cannabis.

“The predicted Bitcoin halving date is April 20. We are living in the best simulation ever,” one industry observer wrote on social media site X on February 1.

The community has yet to find out whether the spring halving will happen on April 20. The only thing that is known is that the community should expect an early spring, as Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog just predicted.

Phil's accuracy has been reported to average around 40% over the past decade.