Bitcoin halving is one of the most significant events for the crypto industry in 2024. Everyone expects it to come in just a few hours. However, there is no excitement around either Bitcoin or altcoins. Cryptocurrencies are falling in price.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin lost about 4% in the week leading up to the halving. It was not possible to test the historical maximum over the past seven days, but it was possible to drop below the $60,000 mark several times.
Source: tradingview.com
What is the reason for the lack of euphoria? There are two factors here.
The first is that halving has not happened yet. Although some experts believed that it could happen even on April 17. But here everything is quite simple: halving is not tied to time, but is related to the height of the blockchain. In other words, it happens every 210,000 blocks. In 2024, halving will occur at an altitude of 840,000 blocks.
The second is the hostilities between Iran and Israel..
Tensions in the Middle East, as well as high inflation in the US, have caused the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar to reach a one-year low..
Source: kaiko.com
It’s interesting that not everyone considers halving, the halving of the reward to miners for a block, as a bullish signal. 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen believes that previous growth cycles were not caused by a reduction in the reward for mining a block, but by macroeconomic reasons.
From the point of view of technical analysis, Bitcoin continues to correct. The price has fallen below $60,000 over the past seven days (for the first time since March 5, 2024), and the 50-day moving average (in orange) is above. The RSI indicator, although it has begun to grow, is still below 50, which also does not indicate a change in trend. Breaking the resistance level of $73,794 will allow you to change your assessment of the situation.. But if the support level of $59,600 does not hold, the sales will continue.
Source: tradingview.com
The fear and greed index decreased by 13 points compared to last week.. Now its value is 66. This still suggests greed is prevalent, although not extreme.
Ethereum
A little less than 8% lost airwaves in a week. The second largest cryptocurrency in the world by capitalization dropped to $3,000. Sentiment during the week was predominantly bearish, which resulted in five negative trading sessions.
Source: tradingview.com
The main reason for the negative dynamics in the last seven days was the behavior of large players (whales). They started selling off their ETH en masse. For example, one of the whales, who still took part in the Ethereum ICO, sold 2,000 tokens for 6 million USDC, say analysts of the Spot On Chain platform.
The number of validators on the Ethereum network has grown to 20,000. This happened for the first time since September 2023. The upward trend in the indicator began in March 2024. The situation is explained by the possibility of re-staking, which allows you to stake cryptocurrency not only on Ethereum, but also on other protocols.
Source: validatorqueue.com
The topic of spot ETFs for ether has been developed. If in America they continue to expect the May decisions with a fairly high degree of skepticism, then in Hong Kong the authorities are acting more decisively. This past week, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) approved three products from Bosera Asset Management, China Asset Management and Harvest Global.
From the point of view of technical analysis, we can unequivocally say: the correction for ether continues. The price fell below the previous support level – $3,059 – the March 2024 low.. Indicators also show the advantage of bears over bulls: the price is well below the 50-day moving average (indicated in orange), and the RSI is below 50 and continues to fall. A change in trend can be expected if the price breaks the resistance level of $3,280.4. The current support level is last week’s low – $2,845.
Source: tradingview.com
Dogecoin
The largest memcoin by capitalization, Dogecoin, fell by almost 13% in the week from April 12 to April 19.. It’s interesting that almost the entire minus occurred on one day – Saturday, April 13, when the decrease was 12.46%. Fluctuations on other days only balanced each other.
Source: tradingview.com
The negative dynamics can be explained by a decrease in online activity. According to the analytical platform Santiment, the number of active addresses per day dropped below 42,000. This happened for the first time since October 2023.
Dogecoin remains one of the few altcoins in the top 50 by market cap to outperform Bitcoin since early 2024. From January to April, the DOGE token rate increased by 69%, while BTC gained only 52%.
Despite the correction, there are a number of positive factors for Dogecoin. One of them is a statement from a company engaged in mining equipment from China — Bitmain. That a new Antminer L9 will be released in May, which will support Litecoin, Bells and Dogecoin.
This is precisely what is associated with a number of large transactions allegedly carried out by Elon Musk.. Within a few days, two transfers of 150 million DOGE tokens totaling about $45 million were recorded.. Musk came under suspicion because he posted a controversial tweet just the day before these transactions.
From the perspective of technical analysis, in the short term, Dogecoin has a predominance of bears, while the long-term trend is bullish. Price is below the 50-day moving average (in orange) and below the 200-day moving average (in blue). Support and resistance levels: $0.12285 and $0.16672, respectively.
Source: tradingview.com
Conclusion
So, cryptocurrencies fell in price over the week. The reasons for this were different, but understandable: tension in the Middle East, a slowdown in activity on the Dogecoin network, and sales of ether by major players.
This material and the information contained herein do not constitute individual or other investment advice.. The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.