Long before April 20 and the reduction in the reward for a mined block, forecasts began to multiply on the Bitcoin network about how halving would affect the price of the historically first cryptocurrency, what would happen next with mining, and what awaits the industry as a whole.. Let's take a closer look at the estimates and scenarios.
Optimistic expert forecasts
Crypto optimist and author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad” Robert Kiyosaki, following Cathie Wood from Ark Invest, allowed the BTC rate to rise to as much as $2.3 million. The writer-investor, on the eve of halving, bought himself another 10 coins. Kiyosaki is a constant critic of traditional (fiat) currencies, in particular the US dollar, suggesting that gold and Bitcoin should be considered as alternatives.
Experienced trader Peter Brandt is also optimistic, promising exchange rate growth from the point of view of not only fundamental, but also technical analysis. The investor believes that halving will help Bitcoin reach the $200,000 mark by September 2025. From the point of view of technical analysis, August-September 2025 will be the period of completion of the current bullish cycle, Brandt believes. Against the backdrop of technical factors, the expert raised the forecast rate to $200,000 from earlier estimates of $120,000.
A more modest, but still positive assessment was provided by analysts from the brokerage firm Bernstein. Shortly before the halving, they managed to increase the target price of Bitcoin at the end of the year from $80,000 to $90,000.
However, not all experts are optimistic.
Reserved forecasts from experts
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes admits market decline after halving. However, in general, his medium-term forecast remains optimistic – growth will continue. At the same time, he believes that since everyone around is extremely optimistic, then the situation should develop in the opposite direction – we will probably encounter a correction in the market for the first time immediately after the halving.
Experts from the largest American crypto exchange Coinbase admit that halving may not have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin at all.. Considering that the asset managed to grow to a record level even before the event.
Pessimistic forecasts of experts
There are also pessimistic predictions. TheMinerMag experts predict that only 20% of mining companies will be able to maintain their level of income after the halving, and the profits of the rest will be greatly reduced.
Moreover, it is widely believed that the halving will hit everyone who uses outdated equipment. For example, Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant said that the cost of mining one bitcoin using Antminer S19 XP (the model appeared in 2022) will increase to $80,000. If this is so, then only a strong increase in the value of the coin will allow holders of not the newest cars to stay afloat.
Some market players have managed to prepare for the halving: Fitfarms, for example, optimistically deployed 5,000 new units of BTC mining equipment.
A Brief History of Halvings
So far, all three past halvings have had an extremely beneficial effect on the price of the flagship cryptocurrency. The first Bitcoin halving in November 2012 found it with a price of $12.30 per coin.. A little more than a year later, in December 2013, the price rose to $1000 (then, however, it rolled back to $200 and remained at that level for some time).
Source: tradingview.com
Second halving, July 9, 2016: BTC trades at $650. And in December 2017, the price at its peak = $19,000.
Source: tradingview.com
After the third halving, on May 11, 2020, the price of BTC increased in less than a year from $8,700 to $60,000 (the mark was broken in March and April 2021).
Source: tradingview.com
Technical analysis
In 2024, the situation in the short term certainly does not imply growth. At least as of April 20. Bitcoin's correction continues. This is evidenced by the fall in value below $60,000 over the past seven days.. The 50-day moving average is above the current price. The RSI indicator is still below 50. It will be possible to talk about a change in trend only after breaking through the level of $73,794, which is quite possible after the halving. On the other hand, if the support level of $59,600 does not hold, then the sales may continue.
Source: tradingview.com
Conclusion
Many of the above experts are inclined to believe that the Bitcoin halving in 2024 will historically benefit the first cryptocurrency. At the same time, if the benefit from the reduction in reward does not immediately follow, then a growth scenario in the long term is possible. This is supported by historical analysis (dynamics during past halvings), as well as a reduction in the issue (reduction in supply) of the asset. However, it is better to evaluate the trend after overcoming the corresponding support and resistance levels.
This material and the information contained herein do not constitute individual or other investment advice.. The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.