The real BTC bull market has not yet begun

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at an inflection point, raising questions about its true position in the financial system.. The latest data shows a complex picture, characterized by increased sales activity and changes in asset ownership structure.

Using the on-chain analytical platform IntoTheBlock, we understand why Bitcoin has not yet fully entered the phase of a real bull market.

The real Bitcoin bull market has not yet begun

According to IntoTheBlock, investors have been moving Bitcoin to centralized exchanges (CEX) for six weeks in a row, with almost $2 billion in net deposits recorded since December. This trend is usually interpreted as a signal of increased seller activity.

If you dig deeper, you will find that the BTC ownership structure has changed significantly. The average holding time of traded coins recently reached a record high. This means that long-term holders have begun to move assets, getting rid of Bitcoin.

BTC Holdings Balance. Source: IntoTheBlock

Interestingly, in January, addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC increased their holdings, while addresses with a balance of less than 1,000 BTC decreased their holdings.. On the other hand, short-term holders' holdings have been rising since October 2023, which is usually associated with bull markets.

However, IntoTheBlock believes that the current state of the market does not reflect the typical characteristics of previous peaks.

“The lack of volume relative to previous bull markets, limited decline in long-term holders' balance sheets, and a very modest MVRV ratio of 1.88 means that Bitcoin is likely experiencing a temporary decline and has not yet entered true bull market territory,” they commented. in company.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. Source: IntoTheBlock

Juan Pellicer, senior researcher at IntoTheBlock, spoke to BeInCrypto about the need to be careful when interpreting current trends. He noted that Bitcoin has not undergone a significant pullback for six months, which means that the current decline may just be a natural correction.

“Until we see things like a consistent allocation of assets from long-term to short-term holders, MVRV above 2.5 and a significant surge in transactions and volumes, it is still too early to talk about a true bull market,” he said.


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