In 2024, elections will be organized in 80 countries, home to half the world's population, or over 4 billion people.. The results of these votes will determine not only the president in the United States and the parliament in the European Union, but also how major conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, will be resolved.
offers insight into the eight most important elections of 2024.
Taiwan
Population: 23.57 million
Elections: presidential
Date: January 13
The presidential elections in the Republic of China (the official name of Taiwan) are important not in themselves, but in the context of the confrontation between the United States and China. The currently pro-government Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates the independence of the island state, hopes for US support and openly irritates mainland communists, and the opposition force “Kuomintang”, which is treated loyally in Beijing, are competing for the position.
If the latter wins, there is a risk of losing the status of a state for the sake of the status of a province of the PRC, which the young population of Taiwan is frankly not ready for. Victory first could lead to a clash of superpowers, which could become a world war of the 21st century.
USA
Donald Trump and Joe Biden Illustration ABC News
Population: 335 million
Elections: presidential
Date: November 5
By autumn, the United States will become the main “hot spot” on the political map of the world. The US election race began as a rematch between current and former presidents – Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. However, political analysts expect a black swan event that will dramatically change the course of the election and possibly lead to violence.
Biden supporters, according to Politico, fear the end of democracy, and Trumpists are worried that their candidate will be sent to prison. Against this background, there are strong expectations in the United States that the enemies of the state – China, Russia, Iran, North Korea – will devote all their efforts to spreading chaos among Americans through cyber attacks, deepfakes, disinformation, psychological attacks and even terrorism.
Mexico
Mexican presidential candidates Shochi Galvez and Claudia Sheinbaum Photo: DR
Population: 127 million
Elections: general
Date: June 2
In June, Mexico will re-elect its president to a six-year term, as well as all 500 members of the lower house of parliament and 128 senators.. For the first time, the two main contenders for the post of head of state are women – the candidate from the united opposition, Shochi Galvez, and the former mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, a protégé of current President Lopez Obrador.
The main risk of this election campaign is that it runs parallel to and is interconnected with the election race in the United States, where Trumpists are fiercely demanding tighter controls on the flow of goods and migrants on the border with Mexico. Analysts fear that the increased attention of politicians eager for power to this problem could cause a quarrel between the two countries.. The favorite of the presidential race, Claudia Sheinbaum, previously said that Mexico is not fenced off from investments from Russia and China and should not build a “relationship of subordination” with the United States.
European Union
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks at a meeting of the European Parliament in Stratsbourg, France. Photo: European Union/EP/UPI
Population: 450 million
Elections: parliamentary
Date: June 6-9
European Parliament elections – second largest in 2024 after India. Residents of 27 European Union countries will have to re-elect a 705-seat legislative body that influences such pan-European projects as the transition to green energy, assistance to migrants and financing of Ukraine.
According to forecasts, the center-right European People's Party will continue to dominate the European Parliament, and the German Ursula von der Leyen will again be appointed President of the European Commission. But the shocking success of Eurosceptic populist Geert Wilders in the recent Dutch elections has raised fears of a European far-right entering the European Parliament.. If this coincides with Donald Trump's return to the US presidency, it could complicate coordination between Western allies in the Russia-Ukraine war.
India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Photo: DR
Population: 1.4 billion
Elections: parliamentary
Date: April–May
More than 900 million voters are registered in India in an election in which current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the world's most popular leader, hopes to be re-elected to a third five-year term.. His Bharatiya Janata Party now holds more than 55% of the seats in the lower house of parliament and is almost certain to regain a majority. Analysts fear that a new victory for the authoritarian-minded Narendra Modi could spell a loss for democracy in India.
Indian Prime Minister criticized for seeking to centralize power and undermine independence of media and judiciary. Narendra Modi is also accused of using government agencies to arrest political rivals and kill opponents who fled India.
Pakistan
Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan Photo: DR
Population: 230 million
Elections: general
Date: February 8
Pakistan was plunged into political chaos in April 2022 after the country's most popular politician, Imran Khan, was removed as prime minister over allegations of illegally selling gifts from foreign leaders.. Attempts to arrest him in the spring of 2023 caused mass rallies that escalated into pogroms, clashes with the police and storming of military facilities. As a result, Imran Khan ended up in prison, and in addition to the corruption case, he faced 180 more charges, including sedition and terrorism.
Elections in Pakistan were supposed to take place in October 2023, but were postponed to 2024 due to financial considerations and security risks.. According to local human rights activists, the “Imran Khan factor” will prevent a fair and fair vote. Atlantic Council experts predict that after the elections, either a deep political and economic crisis will erupt in Pakistan, or a “culture of coups” will be revived and a period of military rule will begin.
South Africa
Supporters of the African National Congress under posters of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa Photo: DR
Population: 62 million
Elections: general
Dates: May–August
South Africa has the status of the most developed country on the African continent. But there is growing dissatisfaction with crime, social inequality, corruption, power outages and unemployment.. In this regard, for the first time in 30 years after the end of apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC) party, which Nelson Mandela brought to power, may lose national elections.
Control Risk analysts are convinced that the ANP will continue to lead the country. But if the ruling political force gets less than 45% of the votes in the elections, then it will have to form a coalition with the Marxist party “Economic Freedom Fighters”, which supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as an “anti-imperialist program”. In such a scenario, South Africa would become more socialist and anti-Western, and current head of state Cyril Ramaphosa would likely choose to step down and hand over presidential powers to his deputy, Paul Mashathila.
Venezuela
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado Photo: La Republica
Population: 30 million
Elections: presidential
Dates: unknown
On January 10, 2025, the six-year presidential term of Venezuela's authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro expires.. He needs to hold elections and be re-elected in 2024, but a significant part of the population is opposed to him. In October 2023, 2.4 million voters turned out in the opposition-sponsored primary elections, and 93% of them voted for liberal Maria Corina Machado.
As I wrote , Nicolas Maduro held a referendum in December on the annexation of the territories of neighboring Guyana to Venezuela. Analysts believe that by doing this he created the opportunity for himself to declare war and, under the pretext of a state of emergency, cancel the elections. This path is fraught with the Hague Tribunal and a prison bench. Therefore, some analysts cherish the hope that Nicolas Maduro will still prefer to hold fair elections and exchange his presidency for a safe retirement.