Yesterday, November 13, negotiations took place with Polish carriers, who have been blocking the three main checkpoints on the Ukrainian-Polish border for a week now.. Judging by the wide announcement of this meeting, the Ministry of Infrastructure had high hopes for dialogue with the protesters, representatives of the Lublin and Carpathian voivodeships, customs authorities of both countries and carriers. However, there was no “victory”.
By the evening, after a tense and, as Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Sergei Derkach admitted, “very emotional” day, no agreements had been reached on lifting the blockade or at least an approximate date for its end.
It all comes down to the main demand of the organizers of the blockade – the return of the permit system for Ukrainian drivers to enter the European Union. For its part, Ukraine firmly refuses to even discuss this possibility, reasonably pointing out that the transport visa-free regime, which gave the right of free entry to Ukrainian drivers, was concluded by the European Commission and thus cannot be nullified at the national level. Representatives of the European Commission's Directorate for Mobility and Transport were also invited to join yesterday's negotiations – but they did not take up this offer.
I figured out what consequences a protracted blockade could have and what are the chances of ending it.
What does the Polish transport blockade look like a week after it began? At noon on November 6, Polish carriers began physically blocking three of the four largest border crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border – Korcheva – Krakovets, Hrebiene – Rava Ruska, Dorohusk – Yagodin.
Organized by the Committee for the Protection of Carriers and Employers in the Transport Sector with the political support of the far-right Polish Confederation party.
The blockade is ensured by a minimum number of people and resources: on both sides of the checkpoint there are tractors (up to half a dozen) without trailers. There are about ten people at each of the three points. “We are dividing our forces so that they are enough for a long protest,” Polish media quote Tomasz Borkowski, a representative of the protesting carriers. According to him, farmers who are finishing their field work plan to join the protests, but so far there is no confirmation of this intention.
How does it affect cargo transportation? Since the beginning of the blockade, according to the Polish Tax Administration, the approximate waiting time for crossing the border in the direction of Ukraine at checkpoints is:
“Grebnoye – Rava-Russkaya” – 140 hours (almost 6 days); “Medyka – Shegini” – 67 hours; “Dorogusk – Yagodin” – 39 hours.
Initially, Polish protesters said that military cargo and humanitarian aid would be allowed to pass through unhindered, but in fact there are cases of blocking of such vehicles heading to Ukraine.
The speed of passage is no more than a few cars per hour, although there is evidence that with the help of the police several trucks bypassed the blockade. However, this is a private, not a systemic practice.. The police and border guards are responsible for maintaining order on the access roads before crossing.
In total, a queue of almost 50 km of 20,000 vehicles formed, the drivers of which did not have access to basic amenities. By November 9, dry closets were delivered to the checkpoint.
Private transport and passenger buses cross the border without problems, with a slight delay compared to pre-blockade times.
What are the main claims and demands of the Poles (formal)? There are six demands in total, the main one of which is the first: the return of permits for Ukrainian carriers. And:
tightening of transportation requirements within the framework of the ECMT (certificates of the European Conference of Ministers of Transport); prohibition of registration in Poland of companies with capital from outside the EU; gaining access to the Ukrainian “Road” system; separate queues for cars from the EU in the eCherga system; allocation of separate queues for empty cars.
“The protesters put the return of permits first,” Sergei Derkach said in a video message following the negotiations, making it clear that for now the Polish side does not intend to give up this demand.
What is its essence? Until June 2022, every carrier traveling to the territory of the European Union was required to obtain permission to cross the state border with the relevant EU countries.
After the start of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation, the European Union canceled the need to obtain this permit for a year, and this summer extended the validity of this norm until June 2024. Now Polish carriers are demanding the abolition of this benefit.
Protesters believe that half of the transportation should be carried out by Polish companies. According to the Polish side, last week, out of 27,000 trucks queuing to be sent to Poland, only 1,700 were Polish.
Is this a new problem? No, tension in the Ukrainian-Polish transport sector existed even before the full-scale war. The Polish side (and other European neighboring countries) were not very willing to issue permits: according to the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ukrainian quota decreased from 200,000 permits in 2016 to 160,000 in 2021, despite the fact that the total trade turnover with EU countries increased by almost 45 %.
Every year, this led to a significant increase in the cost of freight in the fall; Ukrainian and foreign producers were physically unable to export their products.
Ukraine interpreted this as a violation of the terms of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU and, in the fall of 2021, addressed the European Commission with a request to begin consultations on this issue.
For its part, the Polish side states that the immediate admission of Ukrainian carriers, without any transition period, has unbalanced the market. Thus, in 2023, the Ukrainian side has already completed more than 900,000 shipments against 160,000 permits in 2021.
Is there an informal background to the protests? “e-Cherga”. This point is passed over in polite silence by Ukrainian officials, who interpreted its implementation as a brilliant reform, but it is increasingly heard from the Polish side.
According to Polish players, the system is designed in such a way as to make it easier for local companies. According to Borkowski, Polish carriers travel to Lviv and Kiev – the journey takes two days, and 10 days of waiting in line, while “a Ukrainian company can reserve a place several days before the start of transportation.”
The assumption that Ukrainian officials have rigged the system to help Ukrainian business without compensation is a credit to the generosity of Polish companies.
In the comments to Sergei Derkach’s posts, representatives of Ukrainian business kindly say that bypassing the queue costs $120–200 per car – everyone knows about this, but not everyone has access to this option.
What are the arguments of the Ukrainian side? As always happens, when the situation reaches a dead end, the Ukrainian official begins to refer to the “hand of the Kremlin.”
Indeed, of the four Polish carrier associations, only one is on strike – the recently created Committee for the Protection of Carriers and Transport Employers. According to the Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine, the protesters are truck drivers who worked in the Belarusian and Russian markets.
Meanwhile, as already indicated, the problem of transport transportation had been smoldering even before the war and worsened in its second year.
How big is the economic damage from the blockade? According to experts, one truck per day loses about 300 euros in working capital.
Considering the number of trucks idling at the border, one day of idle time can be estimated at more than 3 million euros for Ukrainian carriers alone.
Who will compensate for these losses? The Ukrainian side is insinuatingly trying to play this card, transparently hinting that the Polish protesters may be faced with the question of compensation for broken contracts in court. But so far it is not noticeable that anyone is afraid of this prospect.
What could be the further development of events? Negotiations are currently underway to allow at least certain groups of commercial goods to pass through – primarily fuel. However, this may cause protests from Ukrainian carriers, whose goods will not be recognized as strategic.
In the “eCherga” part, it is likely that the system’s functionality will be updated – the ability to replace the driver for empty trucks.
Polish colleagues were offered to launch empty transport through the Ugrinov-Dolgobiczow checkpoint, where there is a corresponding lane. This option would allow empty travelers to reduce the waiting time to cross the border.
Negotiations will continue at the level of the infrastructure ministries of Poland and Ukraine, as well as with the participation of the European Commission.
In the worst-case scenario, the protests will last until January 3, that is, they will cover the peak pre-Christmas period for carriers. If this happens, then, according to experts, Ukraine may – temporarily – lose about 60% of goods imported by road transport.